‘Sonic The Hedgehog 3’ & ‘Mufasa’ In Christmas Box Office Spree With $50M+ Apiece – Early Box Office Look
As if the great Moana 2 box office news wasn’t enough this morning, Disney‘s Barry Jenkins’ directed Lion King prequel, Mufasa, and Paramount‘s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 hit NRG three-week tracking.
Currently, the Hedgehog is looking to outrun the Lion, $55M+ to $50M, but keep in mind Disney hasn’t screamed out their campaign for Mufasa yet. That happens on Dec. 2, even though trailers will be in front of a ton of family eyeballs this week on Moana 2. Mufasa also has had four trailers out to Sonic the Hedgehog‘s two.
Right now, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is besting Mufasa in first choice, 11 to 7 for general audiences. Sonic 3 had a big second trailer drop on Monday which trended all day. Mufasa is ahead of Sonic 3, 50 to 47, in interest.
The appeal that Sonic 3 has is in its third go round is the fan-fave casting of Keanu Reeves as Shadow, not to mention double Jim Carreys in the roles of villain Robotnik and his grandfather. Ben Schwartz and Idris Elba are also returning as Sonic and Knuckles in the popular feature take of the Sega videogame.
Note, it doesn’t matter who wins, just another great moment of all boats rising over the Christmas box office after what is expected to be a record Thanksgiving stretch, besting 2018’s $315.6M 5-day. In the end, it’s about that Christmas multiple which can be as high as 5x-5.5x for family titles opening before the big day. Even though the estimate for Sonic 3 is below its previous installments, Sonic the Hedgehog ($58M) and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ($72.1M), tracking is hot on this threequel. Audiences don’t really head out to the movies until Christmas Day which falls on a Wednesday this year. Interest among teen girls is equal to teen boys with 17-34 at a high 16% unaided and 51% definite interest. The threequel is big with moms and both girls and boys.
While these openings aren’t at the level of a Star Wars, Avatar or Spider-Man: No Way Home — they’re better than last Christmas’ openings of Wonka ($39M) and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($27.6M). You’d never think that last year’s Christmas week would do well at the B.O., but it did grossing $280M per Box Office Mojo. That was ahead of 2022’s Christmas week which had Avatar: The Way of Water, that frame doing $246.4M, and it was only -4% off from Christmas week 2021 which contained Spider-Man: No Way Home.
